Elliott Wave predicts another volatile Rand week


I realize that is quite a complex forecast…but that is what the patterns were saying.

The fact is, markets are complex, and the Elliott Wave Principle is the best tool we know of that is able to provide some clarity amidst all the fog and the noise. It was certainly looking like it was going to be an interesting week.

Here were the biggest headlines from the 5 days:

  • Shocking GDP prediction – a spine-chilling analysis showed South Africa’s economy could contract by as much as 16.7% in 2020, despite the stimulus…
  • US Jobless Rate– an explosion of unemployment has hit the US, with the official unemployment rate now over 14%…
  • US-China tensions – blame games around the COVID-19 pandemic were now spilling over into Trade War news again, as the US threatened action should the current deal be ignored
  • SA Bonds– despite being de-listed from the World Bond Index, we saw a significant interest in South African bonds

With the Rand opening the week over R18.80, many were watching to see if we would yet again have another push over R19, and then fears were of R20/$…

…as we showed with our analysis, the Elliott Wave Principle was saying otherwise.

And that was what we saw on Monday as the market turned and pushed lower to touch around R18.30 when Tuesday evening came around.

Some relief for importers and consumers…but as our forecast had said from Friday, we would then see the market bottom out, and head higher again.

Which is just what we saw over Wednesday/Thursday as the market pushed up to over R18.80 again!

The Rand rollercoaster was in full swing

Now, the fact is that you would likely have read dozens of reasons from economists and Rand “experts” as to what had caused the Rand to first strengthen … only to weaken again…

…be it Trade Wars, Covid-19, Junk status and bond de-listing etc, etc.

Now this all sounds very plausible…

…and, yes, it is true – big events do (sometimes) tend to trigger some large moves.

But that is all they are:Triggers…

Events are NOT direction-givers.

And that, Tai, is why after-the-fact analysis is basically worthless to anyone – looking back when it is too late to do anything about it.

Because it is not these triggers that determine the direction, but the underlying mass sentiment at the time that will do so.

And that is what we focus on…

The Elliott Wave based analysis system we use is not perfect (show me a system that is), but it allows us to track human sentiment (the driver of all liquid markets), and give us an edge in the market as to where we can expect to go (a true direction-giver)…

…allowing you to make decisions, and take action – in time!



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